Joe-Pinions: Sports

11 Sept 2010 – txtmstrjoe’s NFL Pick ’em, Wk 1

Posted in Football (NFL) by txtmstrjoe on 11/09/2010

Although I play in one Fantasy F1 league (thanks to my best friend Rick, who got me hooked last year), I’ve never played in any Fantasy Football (NFL) leagues.  I don’t gamble on sports, I don’t put money on results or points spreads or anything like that.  Not even my participation in the Fantasy F1 league counts, since Rick has so generously subsidized my participation for the last couple of years (he’s paid handsomely in his line of work, so he can afford it).

But I’d like to do something akin to gambling on football this upcoming season in this blog.  Just for fun and for the laughs (and, actually, a desire to see if I’ve done my own analyses of the teams and players and match-ups well), I’ll be lining up four games every week for the next seventeen weeks, trying to guess the outcome of the games during the NFL regular season.  Other than for my own amusement and to see how many outcomes of the games I can guess correctly, this will be just a rather pointless yet still hopefully fun exercise.

One of the games will always be the San Francisco 49ers game for that week, except for their bye week, during which I’ll pick another game.  But the three other games will be selections I’ll make based on whatever tickles my fancy.

A perfect “score” for the regular season would be getting all four games for all seventeen weeks, which means sixty eight games’ outcomes guessed correctly.

So, here are this week’s games, a brief analysis and some comments, and the picks:

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger will be serving the first game of his four-game suspension, so the Steelers will have largely untested third-year Dennis Dixon at quarterback.  This will likely mean that they will lean heavily on their ground game, but can Rashard Mendenhall and the O-line generate enough offense to keep up with the Falcons’ offense?

I’m picking the Falcons for this game.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

It’s hard to pick against the Colts with its high-powered offense, but they’ll be going up against a team that I believe is on the cusp of exploding into the elite level.  QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson look like they are the next great QB+WR combo in the NFL.  The Texans’ defense is still a work in progress, but it boasts one of the best rushing DEs in the league, Mario Williams.  Lastly, the Texans are playing at home.

The Texans, then, in a close victory at home.

Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This week has a few games that look like absolute stinkers, and this is one of them.  I expect both of these teams to finish at the bottom of their respective divisions.  Neither team looks particularly good on offense or defense, so the game will either be a full-on shoot-out highlighting both teams’ incompetence on defense, or a dreary low-scoring affair that shows both teams’ ineptitude on offense.

In a battle of squads in rebuilding mode, I’m going against my natural inclination here and pick the Browns for the win on the road.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

The Niners go up to Seattle to face Pete Carroll’s new-look Seahawks, who look to be San Francisco’s closest rival for NFC West supremacy.  This will be a very tough test for the 49ers.  Though QB Alex Smith looked much-improved during the preseason, the fact remains that that was just the preseason.  How will he do during the true heat of regular season battle?  His offensive line is also a little suspect, with two rookies in G Mike Iupati and T Anthony Davis starting their very first games in the NFL in one of the noisiest venues in the league.  Coach Carroll, a coach with a healthy reputation for being a defensive wizard, will look to attack the rookies.  Finally, I feel that the 49ers secondary is a little suspect.  A questionable defensive sub-group swings the advantage towards the home team

I have the Seahawks winning at home in a close game.

So, there you have it.

We’ll see on Sunday night how well these picks go.

Care to play along with me and see how well you pick these same games?  Just state your picks in the Comments section, and at the end of the season, we’ll see who has the best score.

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  1. […] Sept 2010 – txtmstrjoe’s Pick ‘em, Wk 1 Results Per my most recent post, I’ll be playing a week-by-week NFL pick ‘em game involving three random games and the […]

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